Blockaded by Sea, but Not by Land

The US-led maritime blockade has prompted Tehran to explore alternative trade routes through northern ports and land corridors. Analysts argue that Iran’s seven land neighbors, access to the Caspian Sea, and various railway links provide a more diverse range of options than relying on a single maritime gateway.

Iran’s economy minister, Ali Madanizadeh, has been advocating for activating its northern borders and redirecting imports and exports away from southern maritime routes. This strategy is not new; it has been discussed for years. However, the question remains whether these land corridors have enough capacity to replace what is being lost at sea.

Iran’s northern ports allegedly have unused capacity, which could be exploited to expand trade through these routes. Alireza Salavati, a London-based commentator, believes that there is more room to maneuver than Tehran’s dependence on southern ports might suggest. The country’s northern borders offer access to several routes linking it to Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Caucasus.

While Iran may be able to expand trade through its northern ports, concerns about the actual capacity of these land corridors remain. Jafar Ghaderi, a member of parliament, pointed out that 83% of imports traditionally move through southern maritime borders, a significant volume of goods. The eastern, western, and northern corridors would need to handle this massive volume, which is a challenge.

The cost difference between shipping via sea or land is substantial. According to Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, shipping one container from China to Iran costs around $3,000 through southern ports, whereas moving the same container overland would cost roughly $12,000.

Energy commodities are particularly difficult to reroute due to their sheer volume and massive scale. Replicating large-scale crude shipments by road or rail is not feasible due to the significant costs involved. The Goreh-Jask pipeline, built specifically to reduce Iran’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, has operated far below its original capacity.

The blockade may accelerate infrastructure projects in Iran, but these routes come with higher costs, limited capacity, and their own political dependencies. While land corridors can help keep essential economic activity alive, they cannot replace maritime trade entirely. Tehran is not escaping its reliance on southern ports; it’s merely adapting to the current situation by finding alternative means of keeping goods flowing.

In reality, this shift towards northern ports and land routes is a resilience strategy rather than an escape route. Iran will continue to face challenges in moving high-value commodities like crude oil overland or through pipelines that have limited capacity. The blockade may indeed accelerate infrastructure projects, but these investments come with their own set of vulnerabilities, particularly during wartime.

The Iranian government’s decision to divert trade towards northern ports and land routes is a pragmatic response to its maritime predicament. However, it’s not an escape from the blockade; rather, it’s a creative way of coping with its constraints.